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Transcript Disclaimer:
This transcript is an edited version of the conversation for clarity and readability. It is an accurate representation of the discussion but not a verbatim record.
Tracy Ellis:
It’s the Elephant in the Dome — the official podcast of the Washington State Senate Republican Caucus. I’m Tracy Ellis, along with Senator John Braun, the Senate Republican Leader.
You know, it’s interesting: I walk over to the wall, flip a switch, and the lights come on. It feels simple, but behind that switch is a massive infrastructure. Providing power to people isn’t as easy as it seems, and there’s a real possibility that our state may soon not have enough power to go around. That’s what we’re talking about today.
In your district, Senator Braun, the TransAlta coal‑fired plant in Centralia is shutting down its coal operations — but they’re planning to transition the site to something else. Let’s start there. What is the TransAlta plant, and what role does it play in Washington’s power generation?
Sen. John Braun:
This is a big issue. As you mentioned with the light‑switch example, very few people understand how much work goes into getting power to our homes, businesses, and schools. It seems magical, but it’s anything but.
Washington has had coal‑fired electricity production for decades. The last remaining plant happens to be in my district, just over the hill from where I live. It’s scheduled to shut down at the end of this year under an agreement made back in 2011. One unit shut down in 2020, and the second is set to close at the end of 2025.
This plant produces 1,200 megawatts of baseload power — meaning it’s reliable. It’s not like solar or wind, which depend on weather conditions. This is power that’s there when you need it, especially during the coldest months of winter.
A recent study commissioned by independent power providers looked at whether we have enough capacity to meet future demand. For decades, power needs were flat or even declining. But now, because of data centers, AI, electric vehicles, and other growth, energy demand is rising again — in Washington and across the country.
At the same time, we’re trying to transition to clean and renewable energy. Hydro is the backbone of our system, but we can’t expand it much. Solar and wind have grown, but they’re not always available when needed. The study found real concerns about future baseload capacity, especially during extended winter cold snaps.
In hindsight, shutting the plant down on December 31 may not be ideal, but that’s the schedule. The good news is that TransAlta recently announced plans to convert the site to natural gas. It won’t replace all 1,200 megawatts — more like 700 — but that’s still meaningful, reliable power. The transition will take a couple of years, so it won’t help us this winter or next, but it’s an important step.
Tracy Ellis:
Do you think it was too soon to shut down the coal‑fired plant? Do we still need coal in Washington?
Sen. John Braun:
I don’t think this is the best plan. The agreement was made 15 years ago, and people tried to do it thoughtfully, but given everything that’s changed since then, shutting it down now is risky. It could lead to blackouts or brownouts.
In fact, just two days ago, the federal government issued an unexpected order requiring TransAlta to stay online for 90 days and be prepared to deliver power if needed. No one saw that coming — not the company, not the state, not regulators. There are big logistical questions: they’ve been winding down operations, using up their coal supply, and their power‑purchase contracts expire at the end of the month. Employees were preparing to shut the plant down. It’s a scramble.
I hope we can keep it available through the winter, but I don’t want this to slow down the transition to natural gas. That’s a more stable long‑term option. Fortunately, the conversion will take years, so this temporary order probably won’t delay it.
Tracy Ellis:
Washington also relies on coal power generated outside the state — like Colstrip in Montana — and those plants are also coming offline. How does that affect us?
Sen. John Braun:
Colstrip still has coal‑fired units, but some are shutting down, and others can’t legally sell power to Washington utilities because of state laws. They might still be able to generate power, but utilities face penalties if they use it. So a significant amount of power Washington relies on today won’t be available in less than a month. It’s concerning.
Just two years ago, during a January cold snap, we came very close to blackouts in several parts of the state. Some say California happened to have extra power at that moment, and we were able to draw from them. Otherwise, Seattle could have gone dark. That’s dangerous — people can get hurt when power goes out in winter.
The risk isn’t zero, and it’s growing as we shut down reliable power sources without having replacements ready.
Tracy Ellis:
Coal plants are going offline because of pollution concerns. Some say coal isn’t viable anymore and that natural gas is a better solution. Do you agree?
Sen. John Braun:
I think we’re already on the path away from coal, and it’s hard to reverse. Personally, I’m a fan of natural gas — it’s efficient, affordable, and reliable. There are clean‑coal technologies used in places like Japan, but in the U.S., that ship has largely sailed. Most coal plants are shutting down or converting to gas.
From a technology standpoint, clean coal is possible. But as a country, we’ve chosen a different direction. If that direction includes natural gas, I’m comfortable with that. But relying solely on wind, solar, and hydro is too risky.
Tracy Ellis:
If it’s not coal and not natural gas — and renewables can’t provide baseload power — what about nuclear?
Sen. John Braun:
Nuclear is absolutely a viable option. I served in the Navy and trained on nuclear power systems, so I’m familiar with it and confident it can be used safely. It’s clean, reliable, and long‑lasting. It is expensive to build and operate, but it’s a strong option.
There’s already public and private investment in small modular reactors planned for the Hanford area. That will take 8–10 years to build out. I’ve encouraged people to consider the TransAlta site as another potential nuclear location — it meets the requirements and would be a major asset for local schools, fire districts, and county revenue. But nuclear won’t come online fast enough to replace the coal plant.
In the meantime, we need natural gas to fill the gap.
Tracy Ellis:
We talk a lot about affordability. Rates keep rising. Could natural gas help keep costs under control? And what challenges do we face?
Sen. John Braun:
There are two big challenges.
First, the Democratic majorities in Olympia don’t like natural gas. They’re hoping solar and wind can meet all our needs, but physics says otherwise. Even though solar is becoming more cost‑competitive to build, it’s not viable year‑round in Washington — even on the east side — and we’d still need major transmission upgrades.
Gas makes sense, but we have statutory restrictions. Even if we build gas plants, utilities face penalties under the Climate Commitment Act and the Clean Energy Transformation Act. Those costs get passed on to consumers. The Legislature could delay those requirements until we’re in better shape — and if they’re serious about affordability, they should.
Second, there are market challenges. Energy demand is rising nationwide, and gas turbines are hard to get. If you ordered one today, you might wait five years. TransAlta can convert more quickly because they’re reusing existing steam turbines, but building new gas plants is difficult.
Private investors also need long‑term certainty. You can’t ask someone to build a plant and then tell them they can only run it for five or ten years. They need 20–30 years for the investment to make sense.
Tracy Ellis:
We haven’t talked much about dams. Hydro has traditionally powered our region. Is hydro still viable?
Sen. John Braun:
Absolutely. Hydro is the bedrock of our power system. For years, it kept our rates among the lowest in the country. It’s not as inexpensive as it once was — mostly due to regulatory costs — and it’s very hard to increase output. We’re not building new dams, but we can upgrade turbines and improve efficiency.
What we cannot afford to do is remove dams. They provide enormous amounts of power, especially on the east side, and they balance the grid statewide. Removing them would be devastating to our energy supply.