Tracy Ellis:
Welcome to The Elephant in the Dome, the official podcast of the Washington State Senate Republican Caucus. I’m Tracy Ellis, joined by Senate Republican Leader John Braun. For decades, Washington attracted more people and income than it lost. But now the trend has reversed. For the second year in a row, more income has left than arrived. And for the third year in a row, IRS data shows we’re losing more taxpayers than we gain. With this year’s new income tax—expected to be signed by the governor—that trend seems likely to accelerate. Is that right?
Senator John Braun:
We have every reason to believe so. Democrats have held majorities in both chambers for nine years, and every year they’ve added taxes. The last two years in particular brought the largest tax increases in state history. And the IRS numbers we’re seeing lag several years behind, meaning we haven’t even seen the impact of last year’s tax increases or this year’s income tax. We’re on a troubling path—one that risks dismantling what has been a strong and resilient economy.
Tracy Ellis:
Sometimes, being in the minority, Republicans talk a lot about what’s wrong. But Washington has done a lot right—many of the world’s biggest companies started here. How do you see that part of the story?
Senator Braun:
We’ve been incredibly blessed. When Republicans held the Senate majority years ago, we intentionally kept a light touch on the business community. Government didn’t create our economic success, but smart, restrained policy helped conditions that attracted companies like Boeing, Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, Costco, and thousands of successful smaller businesses. Today, many of those smaller businesses are struggling, moving, or closing. The situation is worse than what’s publicly reported.
Tracy Ellis:
Democrats often argue that concerns about capital flight are exaggerated. They say people don’t just pack up and leave. Is the threat real?
Senator Braun:
It’s very real. The data shows it. And Democrats quietly acknowledged it themselves when they reversed their proposed increase to the already‑highest‑in‑the‑nation estate tax. They refused to acknowledge the same reality in other areas, but it’s basic economics: companies and people make rational decisions. It’s not that they don’t love Washington—they simply must survive in a national and global marketplace.
Tracy Ellis:
And it’s not just wealthy people leaving. A new report puts Washington as the fifth‑priciest state in the U.S., most expensive for dining out, second most expensive for gas, and among the highest for child care. Remote workers can live anywhere now. What’s keeping them here besides our beautiful rainy weather?
Senator Braun:
Exactly. You hear about high‑profile moves like Howard Schultz going to Florida, but there are countless everyday people quietly leaving. In my district—which is not affluent—I constantly hear from families who’ve moved to Idaho, Tennessee, Texas, or Florida. Migration data nationwide shows people of all income levels moving from high‑tax states to lower‑tax ones. Washington is no exception.
Tracy Ellis:
We’re launching ExitWA on our website for people to share their stories. IRS data shows that those still moving here largely come from California and Oregon—both income‑tax states. But with Washington adopting an income tax, why would those people move here now?
Senator Braun:
They often won’t. And some retirees are even moving to California because, while it has an income tax, it lacks a death tax. People make rational financial decisions about their future. They don’t want to leave their homes, families, or communities—but they need to afford retirement or keep their businesses alive.
Tracy Ellis:
Democrats say this migration isn’t actually happening, yet the IRS data—nonpartisan data—shows that it is. Why do Democrats insist otherwise?
Senator Braun:
Partly philosophy. They believe government can spend people’s money better than individuals can. I strongly disagree. But more importantly, they don’t seem to understand that Washington’s generous social services were paid for by a strong economy—an economy their policies are undermining. They’re killing the golden goose, and eventually, there won’t be enough revenue to fund the very programs they prize.
Tracy Ellis:
What happens when we reach the point where the state can’t pay for these services?
Senator Braun:
They’ll face the same situation as during the Great Recession: unsustainable budgets and forced cuts. Instead of careful budgeting, they keep raising taxes. Eventually, that won’t work. The recovery next time will be far harder.
Tracy Ellis:
When people tell you they’re planning to leave—what do you say?
Senator Braun:
I stay hopeful. I want people to remain, to speak up, and to help change the state’s course. Real people need to share their stories, because the majority’s policies are making basics like food, gas, housing, child care, and health care among the most expensive in the country. We need people to stay engaged and fight for a better future.
Tracy Ellis:
That’s Senator John Braun. I’m Tracy Ellis. Thanks for listening to The Elephant in the Dome. Please subscribe, check out our YouTube channel, and visit the ExitWA page at the Washington State Senate Republican Caucus website if you’re planning to leave Washington or want to share your story. Senator Braun will be back next week. Have a great day.